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The Predictor presents:

 The 2006-2007 Regular Season Computer Ratings 

1/24/07

An explanation.  I have been relatively quiet for the past couple of wrestling seasons, at least when it comes to publishing rankings.  A lot of factors went into my decision to refrain, but chief among them were family illness, leaving my career, increased political activism, and finishing a long overdue Bachelor’s degree at Western. All of these challenges have now been managed, and I found time last Fall to re-establish my database of Washington High School Wrestling.

 The database is a simple one, utilizing Microsoft Access, and consists of only six Tables, each related to the other in some way.  I track: Individuals, Schools, Leagues, Tournaments, Team Tournament Places, and Individual Tournament Places.  I do not track head-to-head competition among individuals, or Duals among teams—that would be WAY too complex and time-consuming. 

Into those six tables goes the raw data.  It’s pretty basic. The Individuals table simply contains name, ID, graduation year, and School ID.  The School ID is keyed to the Schools table, which tracks important stuff about the school, including enrollment and coaches’ names.  Individual Tourney Places tracks the Wrestler ID, Tourney ID, weight, place, and points earned (for which I have only entered the MatClassic points). And importantly, the Tournaments table tracks Tourney date, Location, and a “toughness rating.” This is the part where I can begin to explain my methodology. 

Let’s start back at the MatClassic records in the database.  I have entered every individual, weight, place earned and points earned at MatClassic for the last eleven years.  This is my basic gauge for every calculation.  Since I am trying to create predictive statistics related to the state tournament, existing MatClassic tourney data is a natural place to start.  I hypothesize that more than the place earned at MatClassic, the team points earned are explanatory of any give wrestler’s talent.  In a four-year wrestling career, an individual has the potential to earn up to 120 team points (four appearances, four championships, straight pins all the way through.) No Washington wrestler has achieved such a feat, but Burke Barnes came the closest, notching 113.5 points in four tries.  Only five wreslters, including Barnes have cleared 100 points: Barnes, Martin Mitchell (111), Tommy Owen (104), Brandon Sitch (102), and probably Coyte Cooper (99+, but the record is not complete enough to tell). Less than 20% of MatClassic participants will earn at least 30 team points in a career. 

 Anyway, this gives a broad statistical representation of wrestling talent.  And it forms the basis for my Tournament rating calculation.  I take the total MatClassic points earned by placers at a given Tournament and calculate (with a couple of adjustment multipliers) that tournament’s overall Toughness.  The Tri-State in 2005 had 1,907 cumulative MatClassic points in its top six placers alone.  That’s one tough tourney.  But then I calculate this year’s tourney as well (1,230 MC points) and build a weighted average of the two to derive a rating.  Tri-state has a toughness rating of 200 for 2005, and 201 for 2006.  On the other hand, the Edmonds District Invitational only had 41 MC points in ’05, and 30 this year.  It barely made a rating of 1 (there are a very few tournaments with ratings of 0).  

Once all of the Tournaments had ratings, I then calculated individual ratings based upon combined score of MC points earned (with multipliers for school size—1.0 for 3-4A, .86 for 2A, and .5 for AB), and a calculated score derived from Tourney toughness and placing.  The machine adds up all of the calculations, and viola! Ratings, that are then ordered and sorted by weight class.

This is not a tiny undertaking.  I have entered, by my own hand, more than 35,000 entire records into this database.  The multipliers may take some tweaks, a may adjust some scoring, but I stand by the ratings.

 NOTE---I DID NOT SAY RANKINGS.  These are ratings, and they only represent the data in, followed by the machine’s calculations.  If there a holes in the data, or a wrestler simply did not place at any tournaments this season, they are not rated. What can I say—the data is only as good as what gets sent to Dave Gilbertson, because that’s where I get it.  It will only get better as more reporting of tourney results occurs.

 Finally, the numbers are really interesting—and they don’t track significantly away from Dave’s judgment on rankings.  In the next week, I will post overall individual ratings, individual ratings by class, and cumulative team ratings.  The team ratings are especially interesting because they are NOT weighted for class.  They are true from 4A to 1B.  That ought to start some discussions. 

Finally, if you have questions that I can answer via the database, please ask.  Or if you have information that might fill some holes (grad years, corrections), let me know. I’ll take your questions and advice at wapredictor@hotmail.com.  

Now, some Individual Ratings: 

 

 

103

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Zach

Zweifel

2008

Lake Stevens

4A

348

2

Nick

Burnham

2009

Black Hills

2A

294

3

Kurtis

Fenton

2007

South Kitsap

4A

251

4

Justin

Purves

2008

White River

3A

208

5

Ryan

Norstadt

2008

Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls)

1A

145

6

Blake

Adams

 

Deer Park

2A

122

7

Sujin

Kraft-Oliver

2007

Washougal

2A

116

8

Jeremy

Wolfe

2008

Goldendale

1A

91

T9

Camie

Yeik

2008

Olympic

3A

89

T9

Rodil

Rodriguez

 

Kentlake

4A

89

11

Drew

Hall

2007

Colfax

1A

87

12

Dillon

Parker

 

Chelan

1A

85

13

Luis

Gomez

2008

Wapato

2A

82

14

Melissa

Watkins

2008

Camas

3A

78

15

Simon

Kipperberg

 

South Kitsap

4A

71

16

Kenny

Sanders

2010

Ellensburg

2A

71

T17

Bryce

Woodruff

2009

Oroville

2B

64

T17

Steven

Romero

2009

Sunnyside

3A

64

19

Zeke

Castro

2008

Pasco

4A

63

20

Billy

Richardson

2008

Bremerton

3A

62

21

Eli

Garza

 

Southridge

3A

61

22

Justin

Hernandez

2009

Tenino

1A

57

23

Hernon

Cortez

 

Royal

1A

56

24

Stephen

Cameron

2007

Kentwood

4A

53

25

Aung

Sithu

2007

Kennewick

3A

50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

112

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Derek

Crouter

2007

Sedro-Woolley

3A

1193

2

Levi

Zadorozny

2008

Deer Park

2A

607

3

Jacob

Lauderdale

2009

Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls)

1A

524

4

J.J.

Garza

2007

Toppenish

2A

403

T5

Jason

Gray

2009

Enumclaw

3A

330

T5

Isaac

Romero

2008

Sunnyside

3A

330

7

Jason

Baker

2008

Kelso

3A

305

8

Jacob

Humphrey

2009

Blaine

2A

270

9

Daniel

Swain

2009

Newport

1A

246

10

Tanner

Teeples

 

Central Valley

4A

209

11

Kyle

VanHorn

2008

Eastmont

3A

200

12

Tyler

Vela

2009

Moses Lake

4A

197

13

Michael

Turner

2009

Auburn-Riverside

3A

185

14

John

Cushman

2008

Steilacoom

2A

166

15

Alex

Acosta

2008

Franklin Pierce

3A

157

16

Brandon

Rodgers

2008

Kentwood

4A

137

17

Ryan

Major

2009

Riverside (Chattaroy)

2A

134

18

Wally

Almaguer

2009

Granger

1A

132

19

Woo Song

Do

2007

Mariner

4A

129

20

Parker

Williamson

2008

Castle Rock

1A

129

21

Ryn

Rollins

 

Republic

2B

105

22

Milo

Jiminez

2008

Franklin Pierce

3A

98

23

Jerry

Villa

2008

Royal

1A

97

24

Josh

Martinez

2007

Pasco

4A

96

25

Dominic

Sepe

2009

Ridgefield

2A

94

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

119

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Brian

Owen

2008

University

4A

769

2

Shane

Hunt

2009

Sedro-Woolley

3A

713

3

Matt

Sencenbaugh

2008

Auburn

3A

671

4

Nick

Cambron

2007

Central Valley

4A

493

5

Deven

Stelter-Moorman

2007

West Valley (Yakima)

3A

386

6

Anthony

Rivera

2008

University

3A

368

7

Phillip

Smith

2008

Mead

4A

263

8

Derek

Stelter

2007

Othello

2A

256

9

Eddy

Russell

2007

Camas

3A

235

10

Sam

Ottow

2007

Monroe

4A

232

T11

Tyler

Cowin

2007

Southridge

3A

223

T11

Josh

Berkenmeier

2008

R.A. Long

2A

223

13

Sam

Bauer

2009

Enumclaw

3A

191

14

Ricardo

Rivera

2007

Sunnyside

3A

189

15

Ty

Howard

2008

Cedarcrest

2A

178

16

Buck

Contreras

2007

Mount Baker

2A

177

17

Gabe

Guzman

2008

Moses Lake

4A

174

18

Brandon

Truini

2008

Elma

2A

164

19

Troy

Cunningham

2008

Kiona-Benton

1A

161

20

Joel

McGill

2007

Black Hills

2A

156

21

David

Waller

2008

W.F. West

2A

146

22

Wayne

Horton

 

Enumclaw

3A

145

23

J.J.

Gubler

2009

Republic

2B

139

24

Michael

Einman

2007

South Bend

2B

136

25

Dave

Burkard

2007

Camas

3A

124

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

125

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Tyler

Gateman

2007

Vashon Island

1A

624

2

Derek

Garcia

2010

Sedro-Woolley

3A

480

3

Tony

Farrington

2007

Orting

1A

479

4

Trevor

Powell

2007

Lewis & Clark

4A

447

5

Jarad

Miller

2007

Kelso

3A

404

6

Arturo

Barajas

2007

Royal

1A

401

7

Jim

Belleville

2009

Black Hills

2A

321

8

Josh

Lasick

2007

Auburn-Riverside

3A

288

9

Cody

Quinn

2009

Kentwood

4A

248

T10

Jake

Muse

2008

Southridge

3A

207

T10

Sean

Sanford

2007

Rainier

1A

207

12

Chris

Stone

2007

Renton

3A

198

13

Jake

Thomas

 

Heritage

4A

192

14

Karl

Bush

2008

Mariner

4A

157

15

Josh

Russell

2007

Granger

1A

151

16

Tyler

Allen

2009

Chelan

1A

141

17

Phillip

Cowin

2007

Southridge

3A

127

18

Brant

Woodruff

2007

Oroville

2B

124

19

Anthony

Rosario

2008

Sealth

3A

116

20

Andy

Duncan

2008

Cascade (Everett)

4A

110

21

J.T.

Gonzalez

2008

Sunnyside

3A

104

22

Carlos

Torres

2008

Selah

2A

98

23

Dawson

Patrick

2008

Mount Baker

2A

93

24

Henery

Hernandez

 

Quincy

2A

90

25

Robert

Pruneda

2009

Warden

1A

89

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

130

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Kevin

O'Neil

2008

Sedro-Woolley

3A

922

2

Kelly

Kubec

2007

Lake Stevens

4A

863

3

Jeff

Fetter

2008

Orting

1A

484

4

Kellen

Hopkins

2007

East Valley (Yakima)

2A

416

5

Sam

Lane

2007

Deer Park

2A

340

6

Kyle

Johnson

2008

Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls)

1A

327

7

Eric

Moody

2007

Newport

1A

276

8

Omar

Avelar

2009

Royal

1A

258

9

Colten

Steagall

2007

Mount Baker

2A

252

10

Mitch

Giberson

2008

Kelso

3A

244

11

Jake

Horn

2007

Ephrata

2A

232

12

Jared

Sterling

2008

Rogers (Puyallup)

4A

230

13

Gabe

Lindquist

2007

Quincy

2A

216

14

Kevin

Healy

2008

Gonzaga Prep

4A

214

15

Kolten

Dekoker

2007

W.F. West

2A

177

16

Andy

Torres

2007

Mabton

1A

157

17

Matt

Beck

2007

Everett

3A

139

18

Jeremy

Savage

2007

Central Valley

4A

128

19

Nick

Olson

2008

Republic

2B

127

20

Steven

Loos

2008

Heritage

4A

126

21

Steve

Edmonds

2007

Lakewood

2A

118

22

Seth

Thompson

2007

Liberty Bell

2B

117

23

Matt

Kostelnik

2007

Oroville

2B

116

24

Taylor

Perry

2008

Bellingham

2A

113

25

Josh

Eacrett

2008

Lake Stevens

4A

106

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

135

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Josh

Monson

2008

Lake Stevens

4A

457

2

Jack

Prince

2007

Orting

1A

352

3

Chase

Smith

2007

Enumclaw

3A

351

4

Sammy

Bisbey

2008

Sedro-Woolley

3A

301

5

Alex

Stemer

2008

Vashon Island

1A

292

6

Julio

Rodriguez

2007

Rogers (Puyallup)

4A

277

7

Mason

May

2007

Yelm

3A

242

8

Yuder

Pech

2008

Toppenish

2A

219

9

Jeff

Croskrey

2007

Central Valley

4A

213

10

Billy

Monroe

2007

Tonasket

1A

205

11

Taylor

Reijm

2007

Burlington Edison

2A

173

12

Cody

Nakano

 

W.F. West

2A

165

13

Tyler

Hove

2007

Peninsula

3A

137

14

Mitchell

Amidon

2008

Auburn-Riverside

3A

136

15

Brett

Stigall

2007

Newport

1A

134

16

Alan

Martinez

2007

Warden

1A

129

17

Daniel

Link

2008

Mariner

4A

126

18

Travis

Bull

2007

Kennedy

3A

124

19

Justin

Schalder

2007

Pasco

4A

122

20

Chris

Britt

2007

Kelso

3A

118

21

Josh

Eldred

2008

Reardan

2B

117

22

Jason

Thompson

2007

Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls)

1A

114

23

Cam

Duncan

2007

Okanogan

1A

111

24

Jordan

Hill

2007

Moses Lake

4A

105

25

Blaine

Shippy

2007

Shadle Park

4A

90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

140

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Michael

Mangrum

2008

Auburn-Riverside

3A

892

2

Elliott

Nay

2007

University

4A

431

3

Randal

Nersten

2007

Sedro-Woolley

3A

388

4

Mitch

Tipton

2007

Lake Stevens

4A

352

5

Dan

Claussen

2007

Cedarcrest

2A

252

6

Kyle

Cartwright

2007

Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls)

1A

232

7

Jeff

Jordan

2007

Colfax

1A

229

8

Cameron

Brearley

2007

Bellingham

2A

222

9

Ricky

Robbins

2007

Tumwater

2A

218

10

John

Thompson

2009

Orting

1A

211

11

Zach

Martin

2007

Peninsula

3A

200

12

Cody

Hoiness

2008

Moses Lake

4A

199

13

Gabe

Ahl

 

Gonzaga Prep

4A

175

14

Sam

Villegas

2009

Royal

1A

167

15

Wiley

Volker

2007

Vashon Island

1A

143

16

Cole

Anderson

2007

Everett

3A

139

17

Raymon

Yee

2008

Mariner

4A

135

18

Narciso

Alvarez

2007

Cascade (Leavenworth)

1A

109

19

Kyle

Foster

2008

Rogers (Puyallup)

4A

107

20

Mark

Jefferson

 

Liberty Bell

2B

106

21

Jacob

Murray

2008

Monroe

4A

90

22

Johnny

Martin

2007

Eastmont

3A

84

23

Nick

Fallis

2007

Concrete

2B

83

24

Tanner

Wood

2008

Cashmere

1A

82

25

Nick

Heneghen

2009

West Valley (Yakima)

3A

73

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

145

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Anthony

Varnell

2007

Lewis & Clark

4A

650

2

Eric

Jones

2008

Auburn-Riverside

3A

517

3

Jon

Healy

2007

Gonzaga Prep

4A

357

4

Taylor

Meeks

2010

Orting

1A

327

5

Tanner

Weiks

2007

Tumwater

2A

322

6

Cody

Miller

2009

Deer Park

2A

298

7

Angel

Ledezma

2009

Royal

1A

233

8

Chessjuan

Monk

2007

Evergreen (Vancouver)

4A

230

9

Adam

Thies

2007

Liberty (Spangle)

2B

228

10

Jack

Calvert

2007

Othello

2A

222

11

Ehli

Keel

2007

Peninsula

3A

180

12

Joe

Fistolera

2008

Kalama

1A

178

13

Caleb

Alvarado

 

East Valley (Spokane)

3A

162

14

Daniel

Sanchez

2007

Goldendale

1A

149

15

Quinton

Vickaryous

2008

Onalaska

1A

136

16

Ben

Lembke

2007

Wilbur-Creston-Keller

2B

131

17

Ronny

Covert

2007

Everett

3A

127

18

Hector

Aguila

2007

Tonasket

1A

126

19

Mackray

Jones

2008

Bellingham

2A

123

20

Fernando

Godinez

2008

Grandview

2A

122

21

Pat

O'Daimhin

2007

Liberty Bell

2B

119

22

Nick

Watson

2009

Elma

2A

116

23

Drew

Walter

2007

Omak

1A

110

24

Josh

Mason

2009

Cashmere

1A

97

25

George

King

2009

Lake Stevens

4A

96

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

152

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Andrew

Johnson

2007

Tahoma

4A

793

2

Jake

Swartz

2009

Auburn

3A

713

3

Derek

Driscoll

2007

W.F. West

2A

538

4

Noah

Hatton

2007

Mount Spokane

3A

447

5

Eric

Starks

2008

Battle Ground

4A

403

6

Dallas

Hintz

2007

Ephrata

2A

361

7

Wes

McAdam

2008

Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls)

1A

345

8

Aaron

Teich

2007

Bellingham

2A

234

9

Kyle

Brown

2007

Mount Baker

2A

162

10

Jesse

Swenson

2007

West Valley (Spokane)

2A

156

11

Joey

Pierotti

2008

Enumclaw

3A

151

12

Josh

Mathis

2007

Royal

1A

147

13

Lance

Larsen

2008

Kentwood

4A

132

14

Carter

Nell

2008

Eastmont

3A

128

15

Michael

Robbins

2008

Eastmont

3A

123

16

Brady

Stoddard

2007

Mountain View

4A

115

17

Kyle

McLean

2007

Highland

1A

106

18

Seth

Holsinger

2007

Peninsula

3A

90

19

Ben

Buck

2007

Riverview (Kennewick)

1A

87

20

Jacob

Desroches

2009

Riverside (Chattaroy)

2A

85

21

Devin

Otis

2008

Okanogan

1A

79

22

Corey

Hendrickson

2007

Mariner

4A

75

T23

Chris

Pierce

2007

Kalama

1A

74

T23

Josh

Widner

 

Elma

2A

74

25

Gary

Hendrix

2007

Fife

2A

71

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

160

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Michael

Lomsdalen

2007

Sedro-Woolley

3A

1116

2

Trevor

Hall

2007

Battle Ground

4A

740

3

Ryan

Desroches

2008

Riverside (Chattaroy)

2A

455

4

Mac

Watson

2007

Elma

2A

317

5

Beau

Stevie

2007

Liberty Bell

2B

274

6

Micah

Sohl

2007

Vashon Island

1A

204

7

Kirby

White

2007

W.F. West

2A

183

8

Matt

Passmore

2007

Steilacoom

2A

172

9

Adam

Orozco

2007

Connell

1A

164

10

Patrick

Prentice

2008

Tumwater

2A

162

11

Arne

Anderson

2007

Aberdeen

2A

152

12

Kyle

Hughes

2007

Lake Stevens

4A

134

13

T.J.

Lochman

2007

Monroe

4A

126

14

Danny

Jordan

 

University

4A

123

15

Tanner

Davis

2007

Kelso

3A

109

16

Davy

Anderson

 

Chelan

1A

103

17

Bucky

Snyder

2007

Kentlake

4A

102

18

Aaron

Snyder

 

Kentlake

4A

91

19

Keith

Parker

2007

Cheney

2A

89

20

Jared

Morton

2008

Colfax

1A

85

21

Landis

Mills

2008

Republic

2B

74

22

Nick

Budinger

2008

Bethel

4A

67

23

Max

Elvrom

2007

Yelm

3A

64

24

Leif

Woldseth

2007

Franklin Pierce

3A

63

25

Cailen

Thomason

2008

Mountain View

4A

60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

171

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Shane

Onufer

2007

Auburn

3A

1105

2

Andrew

Buck

2007

Kelso

3A

665

3

Clete

Hanson

2008

East Valley (Spokane)

3A

440

4

Russell

Luellen

2007

Elma

2A

372

5

Dustin

Baldwin

2008

Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls)

1A

206

6

John

Capen

2007

W.F. West

2A

201

7

Casey

Finnicum

2008

Mountlake Terrace

4A

194

8

Cory

Dodge

2007

Evergreen (Vancouver)

4A

187

9

Jesse

Dellenger

2007

Concrete

2B

186

10

Ryan

Homer

2007

Columbia (Burbank)

1A

153

11

Brandon

Kiehn

2007

Pasco

4A

135

12

Ben

Robles

2007

Southridge

3A

127

13

Mitch

Eggett

2007

Cheney

2A

125

14

Ronnie

Stump

2007

Riverside (Chattaroy)

2A

116

15

Jacob

Conner

2008

Mountain View

4A

108

16

Weston

Argo

2007

Zillah

1A

96

17

Joel

Martinez

2007

Warden

1A

94

18

Cameron

Smith

2009

River Ridge

2A

83

19

Jordan

Greco

2007

Mead

4A

77

T20

Logan

Bowman

2008

Lake Roosevelt

1A

72

T20

Tyler

Stoker

2007

Hanford

3A

72

22

Brady

Paxman

2008

Cedarcrest

2A

70

23

Cole

Bixenman

2007

Todd Beamer

4A

69

24

Jesse

Allen

 

Chelan

1A

65

25

Kyle

Knutson

2007

Burlington Edison

2A

64

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

189

 

 

 

 

Rank

Name

 

Grad

School

Class

Points

1

Erich

Schmidtke

2008

Aberdeen

2A

474

2

Reid

Chivers

2009

Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls)

1A

455

3

Garrett

Rutledge

2008

Auburn

3A

450

4

Matt

Parsons

2007

Kelso

3A

403

5

Josh

Miller

2007

Kelso

3A

271

6

Tate

Collins

2007

Chelan

1A

251

7

John

Fackrell

2007

Moses Lake

4A

156

T8

David

Gay

2008

Mountain View

4A

152

T8

Jared

Walsh

2007

Kentlake

4A

152

10

Tyler

Johnson

2007

Riverside (Chattaroy)

2A

151

11

Donovan

Cunningham

2008

Heritage

4A

146

12

Shane

Hicks

2008

Blaine

2A

144

13

Laurice

Gerig

2008

Olympic

3A

139

14

Rick

Westerman

2007

Cedarcrest

2A

120

15

Evan

Brown

2007

Lake Roosevelt

1A

104

16

Jakob

Torgeson

2007

Ephrata

2A

100

T17

Jacob

Neumann

2008

Moses Lake

4A

95

T17

Darren

McGuire

2007

Lake Stevens

4A

95

19

Jarret

Edwards

2007

Okanogan

1A

93

20

Caleb

Padgett

2008

White River

3A

87

21

Kyle

Schlauch

2008

Washougal

2A

83

22

Ryan

Rose

2008

West Valley (Spokane)

2A

82

T23

Ethan

Bogle

2008

Highland

1A

78

T23

Mitch

Solomonson

2007

Bethel

4A

78

25

Marc

Chitwood

 

River Ridge

2A

76